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The Derivative Delusion: What Derivatives Were Built For vs. What CT Thinks They Are
On the difference between speculation and structure
Feb 20
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tril-lion 无限
AI Agents as Market Participants
When Bots Become the Dominant Forecasters
Feb 20
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tril-lion 无限
The Almighty Dollar: How prices know what you don't
On the miracle of knowledge aggregation that nobody appreciates.
Feb 16
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tril-lion 无限
The 1% problem
Who actually profits on Polymarket
Feb 16
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tril-lion 无限
Can prediction markets save science?
The Reproducibility Crisis
Feb 16
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Why do we predict?
Jan 7
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tril-lion 无限
How prediction markets win
Jan 7
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tril-lion 无限
The 124x Generalist Advantage
Feb 15
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tril-lion 无限
Nothing ever happens
Feb 12
•
tril-lion 无限
Recent posts
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The 124x Generalist Advantage
Why Prediction Market Specialists Underperform
Feb 15
•
tril-lion 无限
Prediction Markets as Cognitive Prosthetics
Augmenting Human Judgment at Scale
Feb 13
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tril-lion 无限
The Whale Paradox
242,611 traders, 2.68 million positions on Polymarket.
Feb 12
•
tril-lion 无限
Nothing ever happens
Why 72% of prediction market contracts resolve to NO; first analysed on 161,638 contracts across polymarket and kalshi, then extended to 1.77 million…
Feb 12
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tril-lion 无限
How prediction markets win
If they win.
Jan 7
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tril-lion 无限
Why do we predict?
The brain's native business model.
Jan 7
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tril-lion 无限
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